2026-02-21 | Layer 0 Log — Thailand Macro (Numeric Snapshot)
Layer: 0
Type: Macro / numeric observation log
2026-02-21 | Layer 0 Log — Thailand Macro (Numeric Snapshot)
Reference set (for modeling):
- Nominal GDP base: 18.58T THB
- GDP growth (annual): ~2.4%
- Headline inflation (YoY): -0.66%
- Policy rate: 1.25%
- Approx real policy rate: ~+1.91% (1.25 − (−0.66))
Scenario A — Policy easing:
- Rate cut: 1.25% → 1.00% (−0.25)
- Real rate: ~1.91% → ~1.66%
- GDP impact (range): +0.05% to +0.30%
- Output range: ~9.3B to ~55.7B THB
Scenario B — Fiscal impulse:
- Public investment: +1% of GDP ≈ 185.8B THB
- Multiplier range: 0.6 to 1.3
- GDP impact range: ~0.60% to ~1.30%
- Output range: ~111.5B to ~241.5B THB
Signal:
- Inflation weak
- Real rate positive
- Monetary easing: incremental relief
- Fiscal execution quality: primary determinant
Observation only.
No narrative expansion.
DGCP™ | MMFARM-POL-2025