2026-02-22 | Layer 0 Log — THB Strength & Export Sensitivity
USD/THB: ~31.0–31.3
Recent trend: Relative strength vs prior range
Structural linkage:
- THB ↑ → Export price (USD terms) ↑
- THB ↑ → Import cost (THB terms) ↓
Trade context:
- Selective trade surplus with US
- Structural deficit with China
- Capital flow sensitivity present
Policy signal:
- Monitoring capital inflow screening measures
- Objective: Stability, not direct FX targeting
Impact vector:
- Stronger THB may compress exporter margins
- Importers benefit via lower cost base
Observation only.
No directional forecast.
No narrative expansion.