DGCP™ Layer 0 — Cambodia 2026 (China Dependency, ASEAN Balance, China+1)
Date (Local): 2026-02-27
Timezone: Asia/Bangkok
Mode: Mapping / Observation
Standard: No narrative • No guidance • No interpretation
1) Mapping — China Dependency Ratio (Cambodia, 2026)
- Trade concentration: High
- Imports reliance: Elevated
- Exports diversification: Limited
- FDI reliance: Elevated
- Real estate sensitivity: Visible
- Shock transmission: Fast
- Internal buffer: Small
Mapping only.
2) Mapping — Cambodia vs Laos (China Dependency Channels)
- Laos: Debt gravity high (sovereign exposure channel)
- Cambodia: Trade concentration high (imports/supply chain channel)
- Cambodia: FDI exposure elevated (capital channel)
- Shock channel: Different
- Transmission speed: Fast
Mapping only.
3) Mapping — China Property Stress Scenario (Regional Transmission)
- Property drag: Ongoing
- Re-shock path: Capital freeze → Trade compress → Risk premium rise
- Cambodia: FDI/import sensitivity high
- Laos: Debt gravity amplifies stress
- Internal buffer: Limited
Mapping only.
4) Mapping — ASEAN Repositioning (Cambodia Balance, 2026)
- China link: Structural
- Western market: Essential (export channel)
- ASEAN corridor: Strategic (regional integration channel)
- Diversification: Gradual
- Alignment: Selective
Mapping only.
5) Mapping — China+1 Strategy (Cambodia Reality Check, 2026)
- Diversification: Partial
- Labor advantage: Present
- High-tech shift: Limited
- Regional competition: Strong
- China+1 ≠ China exit
- Reallocation only
Mapping only.
6) Mapping — Cambodia Survival Model (2026–2030)
Axes: China growth (Stable/Weak) × Global trade environment (Open/Fragmented)
Scenario 1: China Stable + Trade Open
- FDI continuity: Possible
- Export support: Present
- Real estate: Gradual repair
- Growth band: 6–7% (mapping estimate)
- Risk band: Low
Scenario 2: China Stable + Trade Fragmented
- FDI continuity: Possible
- Trade friction: Higher
- Compliance sensitivity: Higher
- Growth band: 4–5% (mapping estimate)
- Risk band: Medium
Scenario 3: China Weak + Trade Open
- FDI pressure: Higher
- Export support: Present
- Real estate: Soft
- Growth band: 3–4% (mapping estimate)
- Risk band: Medium–High
Scenario 4: China Weak + Trade Fragmented
- FDI pressure: High
- Export pressure: High
- Risk premium: Higher
- Growth band: <3% (mapping estimate)
- Risk band: High
Mapping only.
7) Observation Map — Early Warning Indicators (Cambodia Watchlist)
China Signal
- Property sales (YoY)
- Construction starts
- Local government debt stress
- Credit growth
Trade Signal
- Garment export (YoY)
- US/EU import demand proxy
- Container throughput
- Order book (3–6 months)
FDI Flow
- FDI approvals (quarterly)
- Share of China vs non-China
- SEZ registrations
Financial Stability
- Dollarization ratio
- Bank NPL
- FX reserve coverage
Energy & Cost
- Electricity tariff
- Fuel import bill
- Infrastructure delays
Observation map only.